26th ANNUAL WINTER FINCH FORECAST

2024-2025

By Forecaster Tyler Hoar

GENERAL FORECAST

This year, a widespread cone crop reaches from northern British Columbia to eastern Quebec and down the western mountains. While there is a widespread crop, some areas have significant holes caused by insect infestations (Spruce Budworm, Tent Caterpillar, etc.), drought and forest fires. For example, northwestern Ontario, west of Lake Superior, is one area with poor cone crops.

This year’s cone crop across the boreal forest is primarily driven by two significant finch food sources, White Spruce and Tamarack, with White Birch and Balsam Fir also contributing to this food source. Last year, the driver of the Red Crossbill invasion in the east was the bumper Eastern White Pine crop. This year, it appears this species is taking a year off from reproduction for the most part.

To quote one of our cone crop reporters, “Basically any plant with a berry produced this year.” Large areas of the boreal forest have an excellent berry crop for many species, including Mountain Ash, which were observed across several areas.

Areas south of the boreal forest are mostly a mosaic of poor to average crops. Areas of northern Wisconsin and Minnesota and the Adirondacks appear to have a more robust crop than the neighboring areas.

As the season progresses, significant winter storms, and/or freezing rain events, may be needed to nudge some species out of the boreal forest this winter.

INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS

Forecasts apply mainly to Ontario and adjacent provinces and states. Three irruptive non‐finch passerines whose movements are often linked to finches are also discussed. Follow finch wanderings this fall and winter on eBird, the Finch Research Network, and the Finches, Irruptions and Mast Crops Facebook group for more information.

PINE GROSBEAK

Most Pine Grosbeaks should remain in the boreal forest with some flight into their traditional wintering areas in western and southeastern Canada and northern New England states as wild food sources to the north are consumed. Areas around Lake Superior and particularly northern Minnesota, may see a larger movement as the weaker crop in northwestern Ontario is consumed. Roaming Pine Grosbeaks will search for fruiting ornamental trees and well-stocked feeders with black oil sunflower seeds.

PURPLE FINCH

Most years, Purple Finches migrate south out of Canada. A visible movement is already moving south, as reported by Hawk Ridge Hawk Watch near Duluth, Minnesota, and central New York. This year, the majority should leave Canada with a likely moderate flight to the Great Plains and southern United States. Still, we anticipate small numbers will remain in southern Ontario eastward to the Maritime provinces.

At feeders, they prefer black oil sunflower seeds.

REDPOLL

The boreal forest appears to have a widespread average birch crop this winter. Some areas not affected by tent caterpillars in northeastern Ontario and Quebec have heavy birch crops. Areas south of the boreal forest from Lake Huron eastward into New England appear to have scattered areas of good White and Yellow Birch crops surrounded by no seed. The alder crop across the boreal appears to be above average. Redpolls enjoy foraging in weedy fields, and if the snow does not cover these fields, this widespread food source, in addition to the tree seed crops, should hold most Redpolls north. Areas in the upper midwestern states and the Maritime provinces may see more Redpoll movement as southbound birds transit the holes in the boreal cone crop.

Watch for Redpolls on birches, in weedy fields, and at bird feeders that offer Nyjer® and black oil sunflower seeds.

In 2024 Common Redpoll, Hoary Redpoll and the Lesser Redpoll in Europe have all been lumped into the same species now called Redpoll. Genetic work found that a supergene was responsible for the Redpoll plumage differences.

See the link below for photos and identification marks of the Redpoll subspecies. They are still unique taxon and we continue to encourage everyone to keep looking at those redpolls! Also see links below for more about them being lumped.

PINE SISKIN

Many Pine Siskins will remain in the boreal and western mountains this winter. Areas from Manitoba eastward affected by Spruce Budworm infestations have a poor cone crop. Siskins that bred in these areas will be on the move. While band recoveries show siskins will move straight across North America from coast to coast, there should be some small movement south in the eastern half of the United States this fall in search of food.

At feeders, they prefer Nyjer® seeds and black oil sunflower in silo feeders.

WHITE-WINGED CROSSBILL

With a good White Spruce crop across most of the boreal forest and good multi-species cone crops in the western mountains, most White-winged Crossbills should stay in the boreal. Some birds will drift out of this crop throughout the winter. In areas of poor cone crops, ornamental spruces in urban areas laden with cones will be used by crossbills.

Significant winter storms and freezing rain events can cause flocks of crossbills to move out quickly in search of accessible food. Watch for crossbills and other finches in neighbouring areas, primarily to the south, after these weather events.

RED CROSSBILL

Most of last year’s invasion of western-type Red Crossbills (Type 2 and 4) appear to have returned west over the summer. Red Crossbills, primarily the Northeastern Type 12, are common in the Adirondacks and eastward into Nova Scotia, feeding on the Red Spruce crop. There are more modest numbers from Algonquin Provincial Park over to the upper Great Lakes states. Leftover Type 2 and 4 will likely be scattered in very small numbers across the area, with a few usual Type 1s around in small numbers as well.

The Red Crossbill types are usually impossible to identify without recordings of their flight calls. Recordings can be made with a smartphone and identified to type. Types can be identified by emailing Matt Young ([email protected]) or uploading recordings to an eBird checklist. Recordings uploaded to eBird checklists are deposited in the Macaulay Library.

EVENING GROSBEAK

There was a widespread and diverse berry crop across the eastern boreal forest in 2024. The berries provided the families of fledging Evening Grosbeaks with an ample food source to replace the Spruce Budworm caterpillars as they spun their cocoons and pupated into adults. By the end of August, many areas with ample berries were barren, having been consumed by the grosbeaks and other fruit-loving vertebrates.

Areas containing viable ash and maple seeds may also hold some flocks in the southern boreal and adjacent forests to the south into the early winter.

With a visible movement at Tadoussac in early August, there should be a moderate flight of Evening Grosbeaks southward this fall. Evening Grosbeaks should visit areas from the Maritime provinces south towards Pennsylvania. Areas even further south to the mid-Atlantic states may see grosbeaks this winter. With Spruce Budworm outbreaks becoming more widespread and scattered around Lake Superior, western Great Lake states may see even more movement this winter.

Evening Grosbeaks in northwestern Ontario westward should move out of the boreal forest, looking for feeders in towns or suitable food sources further south.

At platform feeders, Evening Grosbeaks prefer black oil sunflower seeds. Evening Grosbeaks will look away from feeders for maple and ash trees still holding seeds. See the link below for Evening Grosbeak call types.

THREE IRRUPTIVE PASSERINES

Movements of these three passerines are often linked to the boreal finches.

BLUE JAY

In eastern North America westward to Manitoba the deciduous tree crop (they love acorns on oaks) appears below average with scattered areas of average crops, so expect a moderate to strong flight this fall.

RED-BREASTED NUTHATCH

The Balsam Fir crop is widespread in some areas with a great crop, and is completely absent in other areas across the boreal forest. As a result, we can expect a moderate flight of Red-breasted Nuthatch, with a few birds already being noted near the Gulf Coast.

BOHEMIAN WAXWING

Most Bohemian Waxwings will likely stay in the north because native Mountain Ash berry crops and other berries are good across much of the boreal forest.

With the poorer crops in northwestern Ontario, northern midwestern states may see more widespread movements of Bohemian Waxwings.

Small numbers will probably arrive mid to late winter in traditional areas from central Ontario eastward into the Maritime Provinces, New England, and northern New York as winter progresses and food resources dwindle. If some move south, this species will forage on Buckthorn and planted European Mountain Ash berries and ornamental crab apples.

We’re excited to again bring to you the translation of the Winter Finch Forecast in French. It is greatly appreciated! Thanks again to Jessé Roy-Drainville and Alexandre Terrigeol at Observatoire d’oiseaux de Tadoussac, Quebec.

The Finch Research Network (FiRN) is a nonprofit, and was granted 501c3 status in 2020. We are a co-lead on the International Evening Grosbeak Road to Recovery Project, and have funded almost $13,000 to go towards research, conservation and education for finch projects in the last couple years. FiRN is committed to researching and protecting these birds like the Evening Grosbeak, Purple Finch, Crossbills, Rosy-finches, and Hawaii’s finches the honeycreepers.

If you have been enjoying all the finch forecasts, blogs and identifying of Evening Grosbeak and Red Crossbill call types (20,000+ recordings listened to and identified), redpoll subspecies and green morph Pine Siskins FiRN has helped with over the years, please think about supporting our efforts and making a small donation at the donate link below. The Evening Grosbeak Project is in need of continued funding to help keep it going.

Donate – FINCH RESEARCH NETWORK (finchnetwork.org)

Book Link

For help with Finch ID and much much more, here is a link to the exciting and newly released Stokes Guide to Finches of the United States and Canada: https://www.amazon.com/Stokes-Finches-United-States-Canada/dp/0316419931

Shirt Link

For a commemorative Winter Finch Forecast shirt where proceeds will go towards the study and conservation of finches and their habitats globally, see here: https://finchnetwork.org/shop

Feedercam

The Finch Research Network has a feedercam co-sponsored by Aspen Song Wild Bird Food, who is a member of Wild Bird Feeding Institute. Due to personal reasons, Bill Sheehan won’t be able to host this year’s Feedercam in Maine. We have a couple locations we’re looking into, but if you have a good northern location with Evening Grosbeaks and other finches during winter, please do reach out if you have an interest in hosting a Finch Research Network feedercam: [email protected]

Please think about joining Finch Research Network iNaturalist Projects:

Winter Finch Food Assessment Project/Become a Finch Forecaster: https://finchnetwork.org/the-finch-food-assessment-become-a-finch-forecaster

Finch Information Links

Crossbills of North America: Species and Red Crossbill Call Types. https://ebird.org/news/crossbills-of-north-america-species-and-red-crossbill-call-types/
Type 12 Red Crossbill: https://finchnetwork.org/type-12-the-old-northeastern-red-crossbill
A Crossbill’s Guide to Conifers of the Eastern Forest: https://finchnetwork.org/a-crossbills-guide-to-conifers-of-the-northeastern-forest
Finch Research Network with finch species information https://finchnetwork.org/
Evening Grosbeak Call Types https://finchnetwork.org/species/grosbeaks/the-evening-grosbeak-project To support research and conservation for this species of conservation concern: https://finchnetwork.org/donate
Evening Grosbeak Road to Recovery Project: https://finchnetwork.org/projects/the-evening-grosbeak-project
Subspecies of Common and Hoary Redpolls – ID Tips and Photos.http://www.jeaniron.ca/2015/redpollsRP.htm
Redpolls are Lumped: Redpolls United! Highlights from the 2024 AOS Checklist Update | All About Birds[TH1]
Red Crossbill North American iNat Foraging Project: https://finchnetwork.org/crossbill-foraging-project
Evening Grosbeak North American iNat Foraging Project: https://finchnetwork.org/evening-grosbeak-foraging-project
Previous Winter Finch Forecasts 1999-2019: http://www.jeaniron.ca/WFFindex.htm
2020-2023 Winter Forecasts are available under the menu at https://finchnetwork.org/
I would like to thank the many birders, naturalists, biologists, and foresters who share their recordings and tree seed reports to contribute to this forecast:

Cathy Antoniazzi (Prince George BC), Bonnie Bailey (northern ON), Denis Barry (central and southern ON), Louise Barteau (Lube ME), Juliet Berger (southeast MI), Sarah Bonnett (northern ON), Mike Burrell (northeastern ON), Michael Butler (northern ON), Mark Calhoun (central ON), Bernie Carr (northwestern Adirondacks NY), Cameron Carver (CO), Caleb Centanni (central NY), David Chetyrbuk (Swan River MB), Joan Collins (Adirondacks NY), John Corden (Flin Flon MB), Clinton Dexter-Nienhaus (Sax-Zim Bog MN), Bruce Di Labio (eastern ON, PEI, Churchill MB), Jessé Roy-Drainville (Gaspesie, Tadoussac PQ), Nancy Dowd (Kings NS), David Elder (Atikokan ON), Brianna F iNat (Linden MI), Michael Ferguson (northern BC), Christian Friis (central ON), Marcel Gahbauer (eastern Ontario), David Govatski (NH and VT), Amanda Guercio (Northern AB), Tyler Hoar (northern ON, northwestern PQ), Glenn Hodgkins (Maine), Danica Hogan (Yellowknife NWT), Adam Holder (northwestern NFLD, southeastern LAB), Aaron Hywarren (northern and central ON), Joe Kayer (The Pas, northwestern MB), Rich Keith (southwestern MI), Andrea Kingsley (northwestern NFLD, southeastern LAB), Kent Ladell (southwestern AB), Anne Marie Lager (northern NB), Angela MacDonald (NS), Ryan Mandelbaum (NY, ND), Bruce Mactavish (Newfoundland), Stacy McNulty (Adirondack NY), Doug McRae (Churchill MB, eastern ON), Lily Morello (MA), Bruce Murphy (Timiskaming ON), Mark Peck (Haliburton ON), Fred Pinto (North Bay ON), Brian Ratcliff (Lake Superior and Northern ON), Nicole Richardson (Churchill MB, eastern ON), Carol Speck (Muskoka ON), Don Sutherland (central and northern ON), Will Sweet (western WA), Alexandre Terrigeol (Tadoussac PQ), Larry Therrien (western MA), Doug Tozer (northern ON, Banff AB), Declan Troy (Alaska), Casey Tucker (ME, NB), Greg Ward (Berkshire County MA), Chucky Wensel (northern WI), Quinten Wiegersma (Algonquin Park ON), Angie Williams (northeastern ON), Matthew Williams (UT), Ross Wood (northwestern ON), and Matt Young (central NY, northeastern ON)

Thank you to Newton Philis and Tim Poole who helped connect the forecast to provincial foresters in Manitoba. Thanks to Mark Peck, Ryan Mandelbaum, Matt Young and Aaron Hywarren for providing the photos. Thanks to Susan Hall, Matt Medler, and Matt Young, for reviewing the forecast.

26th Annual Winter Finch Forecast: The first was posted to the Ontbirds and Birdchat listservs in 1999.

Tyler Hoar Oshawa, Ontario. Finch Research Network, September 29, 2024.